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(Bloomberg) – OPEC expects demand for oil to continue growing in the middle of the next decade, even as world leaders brace for another attempt to prevent catastrophic climate change.

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Global fuel consumption will fully recover from its pandemic crisis in 2023 and will continue to grow to plateau soon after 2035, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said in its latest long-term report. Projections suggest that the COP26 conference, to be held in Glasgow, Scotland, in just over four weeks, is hardly expected to result in a rapid shift away from fossil fuels.

“There are still considerable doubts as to whether all of these ambitious climate change mitigation commitments will be met within the proposed deadlines,” said the secretariat of the Vienna-based organization. Members of the group include the largest oil producers in the Middle East.

Global demand for oil suffered an unprecedented decline last year as travel and economic activity were held back by efforts to fight the coronavirus. OPEC expects consumption to rebound above 100 million barrels per day in 2023 and continue to advance to 107.9 million barrels per day in 2035. The projections have remained largely unchanged from the previous year. last year’s report.

OPEC’s World Petroleum Outlook report, released on Tuesday, echoes comments made earlier this year by group leader Saudi Arabia that the hope of achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2050 by reducing Drastically investing in fossil fuels is a “La La Land” fantasy. While the report recognizes renewables as the fastest growing energy source, it predicts that they will only account for 10% of global needs by 2045.

Before the current energy crisis, which has helped push Brent crude above US $ 80 a barrel and natural gas prices in Europe to record highs, OPEC had started to gradually restore production it had had. suspended when the pandemic broke out. Last year. He hopes to take advantage of the next upturn in fuel use.

Key moment

The oil industry is at a critical juncture. Some energy companies and operators say that a lack of spending on fossil fuel projects as part of the fight against climate change will lead to a supply crisis, which could push oil prices even higher. On the other hand, governments, society and investors are pressuring companies to produce cleaner fuels.

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